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What's your background?
I don’t really have an interesting background. I was halfway through a Computer Science degree when I decided to take a break and focus on Polymarket instead. Before I ever touched prediction markets, I had tried a few things related to gambling, but always in a very casual way. I used to place small bets on esports and even followed some paid groups for a short time, but I never saw any of that as a serious investment. It was purely entertainment.
When it comes to investing, most of my experience came from trading crypto. The money I used to get started on Polymarket actually came from that. My first real profits were from a free-to-play game by Gala Games, and after that I made a good amount with Axie Infinity and a few other games between 2019 and 2021. More recently, I was also trading memecoins on Solana.
Today, Polymarket is my full-time job. My very first bet was on a soccer game I was watching with friends, just for fun. The first time I took Polymarket seriously—with the intention of actually making money—was on a market called “2024 July hottest on record?”. In the end, I lost the bet, but I learned a lot. I remember talking to a bunch of people about it, some of whom are great friends today, and that was when I realized the real potential of Polymarket.
You have a very unique trading strategy. Your chart is only going up without any major retracements. Can you tell me more about your trading strategy?
I don’t really have a set strategy; most of my edge comes from experience. I’ve traded in a wide range of markets over the past year and talked to a lot of people, which has helped me understand how things move and where the real risks are. I also try to avoid oversizing on anything that looks risky, and that’s probably why my chart looks the way it does. I almost never have major drawdowns, and even when I lose a bigger bet, I usually make it back over the next week or two by stacking a lot of smaller wins.
What are your favorite markets to trade?
That’s a tough one. I think my favorite has always been the MrBeast views markets. I used to make more money on them, and while they’re much sharper now, they’re still fast and really fun to trade.
Can you tell me more about how/when you decide to enter a trade, what you do while being in a position, and when you decide to exit the position?
I’m much more of a swing trader than a purely directional trader. Most of the time, I enter a market when there’s some kind of information shift and the price hasn’t fully adjusted yet. I usually try to exit once the market reaches—or goes above—what I consider a fair price.
As for trading both Yes and No, I do that when I’m focused on swing trading and want to keep an accurate record of my profit and loss on each side of the trade.
What's your biggest losing trade and what went wrong?
My biggest loss on a single market was the government shutdown—specifically the market predicting which day it would end. Everyone knew it would probably be November 12, but we had to wait for OPM to update their website before the market could resolve.
To be honest, I don’t really know what went through my head. I usually avoid U.S. politics because, as a foreigner, I don’t think I have a real edge there. In this case, though, I saw every sharp holding YES, and unfortunately I decided to join the party too. It was one of those markets that starts trading at 90¢ with only a couple of hours left for something to happen, so the decay was brutal. I bought a lot at the start and didn’t feel like selling on the way down, which ended up costing me around $25k.
The biggest lesson I took from that was that you don’t need to bet on everything. I was bored, saw what looked like a great bet because everyone was on it and the reasoning made sense, but I didn’t actually have an edge. If you don’t understand a market well or don’t have experience in it, you shouldn’t be betting.
What was your all time favorite win?
The Google In-Search market was my biggest—and one of my favorite—wins. I spent a lot of time analyzing data from previous years and took large positions against Charlie Kirk, Trump, and the Pope. I was very anxious waiting for the results because I didn’t think any of the favorites were actually going to win, but I also didn’t have strong conviction in a single alternative.
That’s when I noticed an interesting wallet buying a huge amount of d4vd shares. I decided to copy the trade, thinking the wallet might have insider information from Google or had built a strong model based on past winners. It turned out that this trader got every bet right, including d4vd finishing at #1. I ended up winning most of my positions as well and made over $100k across all the markets.
Where do you think the future of prediction markets is headed?
It’s been really cool to see what both Polymarket and Kalshi have achieved this year. I love it when someone asks what I do for a living and, when I mention prediction markets, they already know what I’m talking about because they’ve seen it on X or on TV. A year ago, I never imagined that would happen so quickly.
I hope the space keeps evolving, because there’s still a lot of room to grow. Prediction markets are the most accurate source of information we have today, and I think that one day most people will rely on them to understand what’s going on instead of watching TV or reading the news.
