0xAnikUKU
TIME's 2025 Person of the Year
No doubt, the main event this week was TIME magazine the "The Architecs of AI" as its Person of the Year.
The spicy bit (for the main market and related ones like "Will TIME’s Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?" and "Will TIME’s Person of the Year for 2025 be a human?") was the cover leak that appeared on the public Polymarket Discord several hours before the official announcement.
A key detail that many people missed is that these markets resolve based on who TIME actually names, not simply who appears on the cover. So if TIME goes with a group label as "The Architects of AI", that does not mean markets on specific individuals will resolve YES, even if these people are pictured.
After the leak circulated, odds quickly adjusted as traders realized that the selection was not the "AI" itself, but a group of people framed under that headline. Some users moved fast and took the advantage of the price swing simply be reacting quickly and reading the rules closely.
One more twist: scar, the user who posted the leak, reportedly ended up losing money anyway, after misreading the resolution rules and betting on Elon Musk, as if the individuals pictured on the cover would decide the outcome.
UFO files declassified?
The loudest debate this week was around the "Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?" market. It did $16.68M in volume and ultimately resolved YES, but the path there was messy - YES was proposed twice and disputed twice before the final result locked in.
The important mechanic here is how disputes work. If a proposed resolution gets challenged, it can be escalated to UMA's Data Verification Mechanism (DVM). At that point, UMA tokenholders vote on the correct outcome, and the majority vote determines how the market resolves. In this case, UMA voters ultimately sided with a YES resolution.
The core disagreement among Polymarket users was simple: what counts as "declassifies" under the market wording. One camp claimed that a government UAP-related document discussing the declassification process (and referencing newly declassified material) was enough to satisfy the condition. Others argued that this didn't look like an actual release of declassified UFO/UAP files, and that the threshold should be clearer, more direct disclosure of previously classified material.
There was also a longer-dated companion market, "Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?” It used the same resolution language but with a later deadline. It saw much less activity (about $845k in volume) and it also resolved YES, yet without going through the same dispute cycle.
TCG Kabuto Pokemon card trading volume exceeds $1 million
In the past week, the "Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?" market got pushed into the spotlight after TCGplayer reported a significant spike in price in the last two weeks of November.
On top of that, an anonymous collector known as "Kabuto King" received more attention after raising $51,100 for charity by selling as signed Kabuto card at auction. Kabuto King has set acquiring every Kabuto Card on the market as his goal, claiming he already owns 2000+ near mint copies.
According to Polymarket rules, the market resolves YES if TCGplayer's "Market Price History" (set to 1M) for Kabuto Near Mint 1st Edition shows any daily data point >= $100 on or before the December 31st, 2025. Otherwise it resolves NO.
Current market price on TCGplayer is around $40, with average 9 cards being sold daily. That is still quite far from $100 with only a couple weeks left. Even so, there's no clear consensus among Polymarket traders - odds are close to 50/50, with some arguing that the average price can be easily manipulated given limited supply and low market activity.
US to launch missile strikes on Venezuela land soon?
During a recent White House press conference, President Donald Trump said strikes on drug operations in Venezuela are "going to be starting on land pretty soon".
Even so, the "US x Venezuela military engagement" market showed only a minor increase in odds, despite the rules stating: "Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a YES resolution." Currently, the odds of this happening by the end of the year are only 20%, possibly because Trump made similar comments in late November, saying the US anti-drug operation would "extend to the land very soon." However, in the longer run the market views it as more likely than not - the odds of military engagement by March 31 are currently around 57%.
